The Double Deluge: India Records Second Consecutive Above-Normal Monsoon, Fueled by Historically Wet September

Introduction

The Southwest Monsoon season of 2025 has concluded with a resounding surge, delivering 8% more rainfall than its Long Period Average (LPA). This marks the second consecutive year that India has recorded an above-average monsoon, a crucial feat for a country where the rains are the lifeblood of agriculture and water security. While the overall surplus is a positive sign for reservoirs and groundwater, the season was defined by extreme spatial and temporal variations, climaxing with a historically wet September that has now complicated the harvest outlook for summer-sown crops and stalled the monsoon's withdrawal. The increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, particularly in the Himalayan regions, have brought the twin challenges of abundance and destruction sharply into focus.

2025 Monsoon: The Key Statistics

The four-month monsoon season (June to September) ended with the following vital statistics, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD):

• Overall Rainfall: 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA), classifying it as 'Above Normal'. This is the fifth-highest total since 2001.

• Consecutive Surplus: This is the second consecutive year of above-average monsoon rainfall, a favorable trend for water reserves.

• September Surge: The late surge in precipitation in September was a critical factor in achieving the overall surplus, with the month receiving 15% above-average rainfall.

• Regional Skew: The surplus was highly uneven. The Monsoon Core Zone (most rain-fed agricultural areas) received a robust 122% of normal, but East and Northeast India saw a significant deficit (20% below normal), recording one of the lowest rainfall figures since 1901.

Impact of Historically High September Rains

The heavy rainfall in the final weeks of the season was highly impactful, leading to both benefits and immediate challenges:

• Boost to Water Resources: The sustained heavy downpour replenished major reservoirs. Water levels in India’s major reservoirs surged to above 89% of capacity, securing water for the upcoming Rabi (winter) crop season.

• Delayed Withdrawal: The continuous formation of low-pressure systems, especially over the Bay of Bengal, has stalled the normal withdrawal of the monsoon. The IMD expects the rainy conditions to persist, with an outlook for above-normal rainfall in October, exceeding 115% of the LPA.

• Crop Damage Threat: The wet October forecast poses a significant risk to Kharif (summer-sown) crops like rice, soybean, cotton, and pulses, which are now nearing harvest. These crops urgently require dry, sunny weather for maturation and harvesting, and excessive rain could lead to spoilage, yield loss, and post-harvest damage.

The Climate Change Footprint: Extreme Events

The 2025 monsoon was also notable for the sheer intensity of isolated rainfall events, a pattern increasingly linked to climate change:

• Himalayan Deluge: The season saw a record number of 765 very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events in the Himalayan states (Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and J&K), the highest in five years. These intense, localized downpours triggered devastating landslides and flash floods, causing significant loss of life and property.

• Unusual Western Disturbances: Experts note an unusual frequency of Western Disturbances interacting with monsoon systems, leading to prolonged and amplified spells of heavy rain in the northern hills.

Agricultural and Economic Implications

The performance of the 2025 monsoon has complex implications for the economy:

• Positive Outlook: The overall surplus and high reservoir levels create an excellent foundation for a productive Rabi season. This, in turn, helps in moderating food inflation by ensuring a steady supply of staples and vegetables.

• Kharif Sowing Success: The timely and overall good rains boosted farm sentiment, with the total Kharif crop sowing area reaching 111 million hectares, surpassing the normal area.

• Immediate Concern: The biggest immediate challenge is the potential for crop damage from the forecast above-normal October rain, which could negate some of the earlier gains in the Kharif output and impact farm incomes.

FAQs

Q1: What was India's final rainfall surplus for the 2025 monsoon season? A: India recorded an 8% surplus over its Long Period Average (LPA), classifying the season as 'Above Normal.'

Q2: Why is the heavy September rainfall a concern for farmers? A: The intense rain in September, coupled with the forecast for a wet October, is concerning because it risks damaging Kharif (summer-sown) crops like rice and cotton that are ready or nearing harvest and require dry weather.

Q3: Which regions of India received deficient rainfall this year? A: The East and Northeast India region, including states like Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya, recorded a significant rainfall deficit (about 20% below normal).

Q4: What is the significance of two consecutive above-normal monsoons? A: Two consecutive years of surplus rainfall are vital for recharging groundwater levels and ensuring major reservoirs are full for the following agricultural and water-supply year.

Q5: What extreme weather events were notable during this monsoon? A: The season saw a record number of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events in the Himalayan states, leading to severe flash floods and landslides.

Conclsuion

The 2025 Southwest Monsoon will be remembered as a year of immense abundance paired with intense volatility. The 8% surplus in all-India rainfall is an undeniable boon for agricultural productivity and overall water security, setting a positive macroeconomic tone for the upcoming year. However, the season's true lesson lies in the devastating impact of its unevenness and intensity, particularly the record-breaking flash floods in vulnerable hilly regions. This year underscores the urgent need to move beyond simply tracking rainfall quantity to focusing on quality and distribution. The imperative for India is clear: invest more heavily in resilient infrastructure, improve our early warning systems to better predict short-burst extreme rainfall, and develop climate-adaptive agricultural strategies to secure both the economy and the lives of its most rain-dependent citizens.